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기후물리 연구단
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Fokker–Planck dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

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Title
Fokker–Planck dynamics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Author(s)
Axel Timmermann; Soon-Il An; Soong-Ki Kim
Publication Date
2020-10
Journal
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, v.10, no.1, pp.16282
Publisher
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Abstract
© 2020, The Author(s). The asymmetric nature of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is explored by using a probabilistic model (PROM) for ENSO. Based on a Fokker–Planck Equation (FPE), PROM describes the dynamics of a nonlinear stochastic ENSO recharge oscillator model for eastern equatorial Pacific temperature anomalies and equatorial Pacific basin-averaged thermocline depth changes. Eigen analyses of PROM provide new insights into the stationary and oscillatory solutions of the stochastic dynamical system. The first probabilistic eigenmode represents a stationary mode, which exhibits the asymmetric features of ENSO, in case deterministic nonlinearities or multiplicative noises are included. The second mode is linked to the oscillatory nature of ENSO and represents a cyclic asymmetric probability distribution, which emerges from the key dynamical processes. Other eigenmodes are associated with the temporal evolution of higher order statistical moments of the ENSO system. The model solutions demonstrate that the deterministic nonlinearity plays a stronger role in establishing the observed asymmetry of ENSO as compared to the multiplicative stochastic part.
URI
https://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/7584
DOI
10.1038/s41598-020-73449-7
ISSN
2045-2322
Appears in Collections:
Center for Climate Physics(기후물리 연구단) > 1. Journal Papers (저널논문)
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