BROWSE

Related Scientist

timmermann,axel's photo.

timmermann,axel
기후물리연구단
more info

ITEM VIEW & DOWNLOAD

Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America

Cited 11 time in webofscience Cited 14 time in scopus
1,329 Viewed 537 Downloaded
Title
Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America
Author(s)
Yoshimitsu Chikamoto; Axel Timmermann; Matthew J. Widlansky; Magdalena A. Balmaseda; Lowell Stott
Publication Date
2017-07
Journal
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, v.7, pp.6568
Publisher
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Abstract
Past severe droughts over North America have led to massive water shortages and increases in wildfire frequency. Triggering sources for multi-year droughts in this region include randomly occurring atmospheric blocking patterns, ocean impacts on atmospheric circulation, and climate's response to anthropogenic radiative forcings. A combination of these sources translates into a difficulty to predict the onset and length of such droughts on multi-year timescales. Here we present results from a new multi-year dynamical prediction system that exhibits a high degree of skill in forecasting wildfire probabilities and drought for 10-23 and 10-45 months lead time, which extends far beyond the current seasonal prediction activities for southwestern North America. Using a state-of-the-art earth system model along with 3-dimensional ocean data assimilation and by prescribing the external radiative forcings, this system simulates the observed low-frequency variability of precipitation, soil water, and wildfire probabilities in close agreement with observational records and reanalysis data. The underlying source of multi-year predictability can be traced back to variations of the Atlantic/ Pacific sea surface temperature gradient, external radiative forcings, and the low-pass filtering characteristics of soils. © The Author(s) 2017
URI
https://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/4142
DOI
10.1038/s41598-017-06869-7
ISSN
2045-2322
Appears in Collections:
Center for Climate Physics(기후물리 연구단) > 1. Journal Papers (저널논문)
Files in This Item:
Scientific Reports (2017) Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America .pdfDownload

qrcode

  • facebook

    twitter

  • Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
해당 아이템을 이메일로 공유하기 원하시면 인증을 거치시기 바랍니다.

Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.

Browse