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(Un)predictability of strong El Nino events

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Title
(Un)predictability of strong El Nino events
Author(s)
John Guckenheimer; Axel Timmermann; Henk Dijkstra; Andrew Roberts
Publication Date
2017-12
Journal
Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System, v.2, no.1, pp.dzx004 -
Publisher
Oxfold University Press
Abstract
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a mode of interannual variability in the coupled equa- torial Pacific coupled atmosphere/ocean system. El Niño describes a state in which sea surface temper- atures in the eastern Pacific increase and upwelling of colder, deep waters diminishes. El Niño events typically peak in boreal winter, but their strength varies irregularly on decadal time scales. There were exceptionally strong El Niño events in 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16 that affected weather on a global scale. Widely publicized forecasts in 2014 predicted that the 2015–16 event would occur a year earlier. Predicting the strength of El Niño is a matter of practical concern due to its effects on hydroclimate and agriculture around the world. This paper discusses the frequency and regularity of strong El Niño events in the context of chaotic dynamical systems. We discover a mechanism that limits their predictability in a conceptual “recharge oscillator” model of ENSO. Weak seasonal forcing or noise in this model can induce irregular switching between an oscillatory state that has strong El Niño events and a chaotic state that lacks strong events, In this regime, the timing of strong El Niño events on decadal time scales is unpredictable. (c) The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxfold University Press.
URI
https://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/4140
ISSN
2059-6987
Appears in Collections:
Center for Climate Physics(기후물리 연구단) > Journal Papers (저널 논문)
Files in This Item:
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