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Reduced tropical cyclone densities and ocean effects due to anthropogenic greenhouse warming

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Title
Reduced tropical cyclone densities and ocean effects due to anthropogenic greenhouse warming
Author(s)
Jung-Eun Chu; Sun-Seon Lee; Axel Timmermann; Christian Wengel; Malte F. Stuecker; Ryohei Yamaguchi
Subject
EARTH SYSTEM MODEL, ; HIGH WIND SPEEDS, ; CLIMATE-CHANGE, ; HEAT-CONTENT, ; RESOLUTION, ; SIMULATION, ; IMPACT, ; CO2, ; CIRCULATION
Publication Date
2020-12
Journal
SCIENCE ADVANCES, v.6, no.51, pp.eabd5109
Publisher
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
Abstract
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are extreme storms that form over warm tropical oceans. Along their tracks, TCs mix up cold water, which can further affect their intensity. Because of the adoption of lower-resolution ocean models, previous modeling studies on the TC response to greenhouse warming underestimated such oceanic feedbacks. To address the robustness of TC projections in the presence of mesoscale air-sea interactions and complex coastal topography, we conduct greenhouse warming experiments using an ultrahigh-resolution Earth System Model. We find that a projected weakening of the rising branches of the summer Hadley cells suppresses future TC genesis and TC-generated ocean cooling. The forced response is similar to recent observational trends, indicating a possible emergence of the anthropogenic signal beyond natural variability levels. In the greenhouse warming simulations, landfalling TCs intensify, both in terms of wind speed and associated rainfall. Our modeling results provide relevant information for climate change adaptation efforts.
URI
https://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/7507
DOI
10.1126/sciadv.abd5109
ISSN
2375-2548
Appears in Collections:
Center for Climate Physics(기후물리 연구단) > 1. Journal Papers (저널논문)
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