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Using Late Pleistocene sea surface temperature reconstructions to constrain future greenhouse warming

DC Field Value Language
dc.contributor.authorFriedrich T.-
dc.contributor.authorAxel Timmermann-
dc.date.available2020-03-18T08:18:20Z-
dc.date.created2019-12-16-
dc.date.issued2020-01-
dc.identifier.issn0012-821X-
dc.identifier.urihttps://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/7042-
dc.description.abstract© 2019 Elsevier B.V.Future greenhouse warming projections conducted with coupled climate models still exhibit a substantial spread in response to a given anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration scenario. In order to constrain this spread and to provide robust warming projections, our understanding of Earth's global-mean surface temperature response to radiative forcing (referred to as climate sensitivity) needs to be further refined. Here we estimate an averaged glacial/interglacial climate sensitivity using 25 transient Earth system model simulations of the Last Glacial Cycle and a global-mean sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction derived from 64 globally-distributed paleo-proxies of SST. Our results document that Earth's averaged Late Pleistocene equilibrium climate sensitivity is in the order of ∼4.2 K per CO2 doubling. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, this value translates into a global-mean surface warming of ∼5.0 K by the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial levels. This estimate is in excellent agreement with the ensemble-mean projection of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Our uncertainty analysis reveals further that the lack of robust reconstructions of glacial aerosol forcing is a key contributor to the overall uncertainty of paleo-based estimates of climate sensitivity-
dc.description.uri1-
dc.language영어-
dc.publisherELSEVIER SCIENCE BV-
dc.titleUsing Late Pleistocene sea surface temperature reconstructions to constrain future greenhouse warming-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.type.rimsART-
dc.identifier.wosid000508747300048-
dc.identifier.scopusid2-s2.0-85075502897-
dc.identifier.rimsid70698-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthorAxel Timmermann-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.epsl.2019.115911-
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitationEARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS, v.530, pp.115911-
dc.citation.titleEARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS-
dc.citation.volume530-
dc.citation.startPage115911-
dc.description.journalClass1-
dc.description.isOpenAccessN-
dc.description.journalRegisteredClassscie-
dc.description.journalRegisteredClassscopus-
dc.subject.keywordPlusCLIMATE SENSITIVITY-
dc.subject.keywordPlusSTATE DEPENDENCY-
dc.subject.keywordPlusCARBON-DIOXIDE-
dc.subject.keywordPlusMODEL-
dc.subject.keywordPlusOCEAN-
dc.subject.keywordAuthorclimate sensitivity-
dc.subject.keywordAuthorglobal warming-
dc.subject.keywordAuthorglacial cycles-
dc.subject.keywordAuthorpaleo modeling-
Appears in Collections:
Center for Climate Physics(기후물리 연구단) > 1. Journal Papers (저널논문)
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