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Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections

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Title
Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections
Author(s)
Eui-Seok Chung; Timmermann A.; Soden B.J.; Kyung-Ja Ha; Shi L.; John V.O.
Publication Date
2019-05
Journal
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, v.9, no.5, pp.405 - 412
Publisher
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Abstract
A strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) over recent decades triggered an intense debate on the validity of model-projected weakening of the PWC in response to anthropogenic warming. However, limitations of in situ observations and reanalysis datasets have hindered an unambiguous attribution of PWC changes to either natural or anthropogenic causes. Here, by conducting a comprehensive analysis based on multiple independent observational records, including satellite observations along with a large ensemble of model simulations, we objectively determine the relative contributions of internal variability and anthropogenic warming to the emergence of long-term PWC trends. Our analysis shows that the satellite-observed changes differ considerably from the model ensemble-mean changes, but they also indicate substantially weaker strengthening than implied by the reanalyses. Furthermore, some ensemble members are found to reproduce the observed changes in the tropical Pacific. These findings clearly reveal a dominant role of internal variability on the recent strengthening of the PWC. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited
URI
https://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/5840
ISSN
1758-678X
Appears in Collections:
Center for Climate Physics(기후물리 연구단) > Journal Papers (저널 논문)
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