Unraveling the role of the western North Pacific circulation anomaly in modulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability beyond ENSO

Abstract

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall interannual variability is known to be strongly linked to the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This linear relationship is the primary factor in controlling the interannual variation in ISM precipitation. However, there are many outlier cases, and such deviations pose significant challenges in seasonal prediction over this region. Here we show that such challenges can be attributed to anomalous atmospheric pressure patterns in the Western North Pacific (WNP) region. The anticyclonic circulation anomaly over WNP region causes the easterly wind toward the Indian subcontinent, leading to positive precipitation anomalies with stronger low-level moist convergence, while the cyclonic circulation decreases ISM precipitation. The linear baroclinic model simulation results further support that the WNP circulation pattern can serve as an independent factor for forecasting precipitation over India. The WNP circulation anomaly play the crucial role generating ISM precipitation particularly for July and September. Our study suggests that the role of the WNP circulation anomaly should be carefully considered as the secondary prevailing mechanism on the subseasonal timescale during the boreal summer in addition to the ENSO signal. © 2024. The Author(s).