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Unveiling the role of tropical Pacific on the emergence of ice-free Arctic projections

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Title
Unveiling the role of tropical Pacific on the emergence of ice-free Arctic projections
Author(s)
Jahfer, Sharif; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Chung, Eui-Seok; Franzke, Christian L E; Sharma, Sahil
Publication Date
2024-04
Journal
Environmental Research Letters, v.19, no.4
Publisher
Institute of Physics Publishing
Abstract
The observed sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Arctic has receded substantially in recent decades, and future model projections predict a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the second half of this century. Nevertheless, the impact of the Pacific on Arctic sea ice projections has yet to receive much attention. Observations show that summertime Arctic SIC growth events are related to the weakening of the Aleutian low and cooling events over the equatorial Pacific, and vice versa. We demonstrate that under various Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 projections, the models in which the impact of El Niño-driven SIC loss is significantly higher than the La Niña-related SIC growth tend to turn seasonally ice-free by about 10-20 years ahead of the ensemble mean under high-emission future scenarios. We show how the non-linear impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Arctic SIC resulted in a faster decline of summertime sea ice. The ENSO-related SIC changes in the multi-model ensemble mean of Arctic SIC are considerably lower than the internal variability and anthropogenic-driven changes. However, the asymmetric interannual ENSO effects over several decades and the resultant changes in surface heat fluxes over the Arctic lead to significant differences in the timing of sea ice extinction. Our results suggest that climate models must capture the realistic tropical Pacific-Arctic teleconnection to better predict the long-term evolution of the Arctic climate. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
URI
https://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/15251
DOI
10.1088/1748-9326/ad3141
ISSN
1748-9326
Appears in Collections:
Center for Climate Physics(기후물리 연구단) > 1. Journal Papers (저널논문)
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