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Climatological Madden-Julian Oscillation during boreal spring leads to abrupt Australian monsoon retreat and Asian monsoon onsets

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Title
Climatological Madden-Julian Oscillation during boreal spring leads to abrupt Australian monsoon retreat and Asian monsoon onsets
Author(s)
Wang, Bin; Dai, Lun; Cheng, Tat Fan; Sun-Seon Lee; Wang, Tianyi; Jin, Chunhan
Publication Date
2024-02
Journal
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, v.7, no.1
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
Abstract
Abrupt monsoon onsets/retreats are indispensable targets for climate prediction and future projection, but the origins of their abruptness remain elusive. This study establishes the existence of three climatological Madden-Julian Oscillation (CMJO) episodes contributing to the rapid Australian summer monsoon retreat in mid-March, the South China Sea (or East Asian) summer monsoon onset in mid-May, and the Indian summer monsoon onset in early June. The CMJO displays a dynamically coherent convection-circulation structure resembling its transitionary counterpart, demonstrating its robustness as a convectively coupled circulation system and the tendency of the transient MJOs' phase-lock to the annual cycle. The CMJO is inactive during the boreal winter due to destructive year-to-year modulations of El Nino-Southern Oscillation. We hypothesize that the interaction between atmospheric internal variability (MJO) and the insolation-forced slow annual cycle generates the sudden monsoon withdrawal/onset during the boreal spring. Understanding the factors determining the timing and location of the MJO's phase-locking and its variability is vital for monsoon forecasting and climate projection.
URI
https://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/14818
DOI
10.1038/s41612-024-00566-9
ISSN
2397-3722
Appears in Collections:
Center for Climate Physics(기후물리 연구단) > 1. Journal Papers (저널논문)
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