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Increased amplitude of atmospheric rivers and associated extreme precipitation in ultra-high-resolution greenhouse warming simulations

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Title
Increased amplitude of atmospheric rivers and associated extreme precipitation in ultra-high-resolution greenhouse warming simulations
Author(s)
Arjun Babu Nellikkattil; June-Yi Lee; Guan, Bin; Axel Timmermann; Sun-Seon Lee; Chu, Jung-Eun; Danielle Lemmon
Publication Date
2023-09
Journal
Communications Earth and Environment, v.4, no.1
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
Abstract
Atmospheric rivers play an integral role in the global water cycle, but predicting their future changes remains uncertain due to inter-model and inter-detection-method differences. Using ultra-high-resolution Community Earth System Model simulations and a novel detection algorithm based on geometric shape extraction, we quantify global changes in atmospheric rivers and the associated precipitation events in response to doubling and quadrupling of atmospheric C O 2 concentrations. We find that, atmospheric rivers are projected to become more frequent and more likely to be associated with extreme precipitation events, increasing their contribution to global mean precipitation. While the water vapor transport within these structures follow Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, the changes in maximum precipitation intensity resemble other saturated atmospheric environments like tropical cyclone cores. The increased amplitude of atmospheric rivers and the associated increase in mean and extreme precipitation have important implications for future water management and adaptation policies. © 2023, Springer Nature Limited.
URI
https://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/14633
DOI
10.1038/s43247-023-00963-7
ISSN
2662-4435
Appears in Collections:
Center for Climate Physics(기후물리 연구단) > 1. Journal Papers (저널논문)
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