Projected Changes in Mountain Precipitation Under CO2-Induced Warmer Climate

Abstract

Mountains play a vital role in shaping regional and global climate, altering atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. To this end, identifying projected changes in mountain precipitation is significantly challenging due to topographic complexity. This study explains how mountain precipitation could respond to rising greenhouse gases. Using a series of century-long fully coupled high-resolution simulations conducted with the Community Earth System Model, we aim to disentangle future changes in mountain precipitation in response to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) perturbations. Our research findings indicate that the warming observed in global mountains is more pronounced when compared to the mean warming rates experienced globally and in the ocean under elevated CO2. We identify five low-latitude mountain ranges with elevation-dependent precipitation response, including New Guinea, East Africa, Eastern Himalayas, Central America, and Central Andes. Those mountains are expected to have a mixture of increasing and decreasing precipitation in response to CO2-induced warming, especially over the summit and steep topography. To elucidate the mechanisms controlling future changes in mountain precipitation, we propose “Orographic moisture omega feedback” in which an increase in low-level relative humidity enhances local precipitation by strengthening the upward motion through moist processes for the wetting response and vice versa for the drying response. The effects of Mountain precipitation changes can be extended to hydrology and could lead to significant consequences for human societies and ecosystems. © 2023 The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.