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Separating Anthropogenically- and Naturally-Caused Temperature Trends: A Systematic Approach Based On Climate Memory Analysis

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Title
Separating Anthropogenically- and Naturally-Caused Temperature Trends: A Systematic Approach Based On Climate Memory Analysis
Author(s)
Yuan, Naiming; Ma, Chao; Christian L. E. Franzke; Niu, Hourui; Dong, Wenjie
Publication Date
2023-05
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters, v.50, no.9
Publisher
John Wiley and Sons Inc
Abstract
Separating anthropogenic and natural contributions to global warming is crucial for understanding and predicting climate change, but it is challenging due to the complexity of the climate system. In this study, we try to address this issue by estimating the anthropogenic forcing impacts with its long-term persistence features properly considered. In this way, a data-driven approach is proposed to decompose the observed trends from global and regional scales into anthropogenically- and naturally-caused trends. We find that there is a continuous anthropogenic global warming trend since the beginning of the last century, even during the recent global warming hiatus period. On regional scales, the anthropogenically-forced trends among regions are found at a similar level, while their unevenly distributed warming trends among regions may be attributed to natural causes. Our findings provide new insight into climate warming, and our approach based on persistence analysis provides a new perspective for attribution studies. © 2023 The Authors.
URI
https://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/13805
DOI
10.1029/2022GL102232
ISSN
0094-8276
Appears in Collections:
Center for Climate Physics(기후물리 연구단) > 1. Journal Papers (저널논문)
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