Strengthening atmospheric circulation and trade winds slowed tropical Pacific surface warming

Abstract

The globally averaged sea-surface temperature (SST) has steadily increased in the last four decades, consistent with the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Parts of the tropical Pacific exhibited less warming than the global average or even cooling, which is not captured by state-of-the-art climate models and the reasons are poorly understood. Here we show that the last four decades featured a strengthening atmospheric circulation and stronger trade winds over the tropical Pacific, which counteracted externally-forced SST warming. Climate models do not simulate the trends in the atmospheric circulation irrespective of whether an external forcing is applied or not and model bias is the likely reason. This study raises questions about model-based tropical Pacific climate change projections and emphasizes the need to enhance understanding of tropical Pacific climate dynamics and response to external forcing in order to project with confidence future climate changes in the tropical Pacific sector and beyond. © 2023, The Author(s).