Lake Ice Will Be Less Safe for Recreation and Transportation Under Future Warming

Abstract

Millions of lakes from around the world freeze during winter. These frozen surfaces provide essential ecosystem services that are vital to many northern communities. However, the availability of safe lake ice that is oftentimes required to support these services is under threat from climate change. Here we use a 100-member ensemble of climate model simulations to investigate changes in the presence of safe lake ice for different recreation and provisioning activities across the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections suggest that the duration of safe ice for recreational purposes will shorten, on average, by 13, 17, and 24 days within a 1.5 degrees C, 2 degrees C, and 3 degrees C warmer world (relative to 1900-1929), respectively. The projected change in the duration of safe ice will be greater in higher latitudes, but with the most densely populated lower-latitude regions experiencing the greatest percent change. The use of lake ice to support critical transportation infrastructure will also be influenced by future warming through the loss of thicker ice this century. However, our projections suggest that the magnitude of change in the duration of safe ice will differ depending on the ice thickness requirements. For transportation that requires the thickest ice cover, the number of days with safe ice will decline by 90%, 95%, and 99% with 1.5 degrees C, 2 degrees C, and 3 degrees C global warming, respectively. We highlight the need for the development and implementation of adaptation plans to address the imminent loss of critical wintertime transportation infrastructure across the Northern Hemisphere.