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Analysis of the Water-Food-Energy Nexus and Water Competition Based on a Bayesian Network

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Title
Analysis of the Water-Food-Energy Nexus and Water Competition Based on a Bayesian Network
Author(s)
Yaxin Shi; Suning Liu; Haiyun Shi
Publication Date
2022-07
Journal
Water Resources Management, v.36, no.9, pp.3349 - 3366
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media B.V.
Abstract
© 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.Water competition is a key issue in the study of the water-food-energy nexus (WFEN), which can affect water, food, and energy security and can generate notable challenges in water resource management. Since Bayesian network can express parameter uncertainty with a certain probability distribution while reflecting the dependencies of each variable, this study used a Bayesian network to model the WFEN in the Pearl River Region (PRR). The network structure can intuitively represent complex causal relationships, and the form of the probability distribution can effectively reflect the variable uncertainty. The responses of the Bayesian network model under different scenarios were used to analyse the major influencing factors, and water competition relationships in various sectors were explored. The results indicated that water competition between the different sectors was very complex and could dynamically change under the different scenarios. For example, an increase in hydropower and flow to sea could lead to a decrease in irrigation water, but an increase in irrigation water did not necessarily reduce hydropower and flow to sea. Water for hydropower generation and salt tide alleviation were obviously affected by the total offstream water use, but there existed no obvious water competition between these aspects in general. However, when offstream water use remained stable, a competitive relationship was observed between hydropower and flow to sea. Overall, the outcomes of this study could be of great significance to further analyse the WFEN in other regions.
URI
https://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/12293
DOI
10.1007/s11269-022-03205-1
ISSN
0920-4741
Appears in Collections:
Center for Climate Physics(기후물리 연구단) > 1. Journal Papers (저널논문)
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