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Multi-year El Niño events tied to the North Pacific Oscillation

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Title
Multi-year El Niño events tied to the North Pacific Oscillation
Author(s)
Ding, Ruiqiang; Tseng, Yu‐Heng; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Shi, Liang; Li, Jianping; Yu, Jin-Yi; Wang, Chunzai; Sun, Cheng; Luo, Jing-Jia; Kyung-Ja Ha; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Li, Feifei
Publication Date
2022-07
Journal
Nature Communications, v.13, no.1
Publisher
Nature Research
Abstract
© 2022, The Author(s).Multi-year El Niño events induce severe and persistent floods and droughts worldwide, with significant socioeconomic impacts, but the causes of their long-lasting behaviors are still not fully understood. Here we present a two-way feedback mechanism between the tropics and extratropics to argue that extratropical atmospheric variability associated with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is a key source of multi-year El Niño events. The NPO during boreal winter can trigger a Central Pacific El Niño during the subsequent winter, which excites atmospheric teleconnections to the extratropics that re-energize the NPO variability, then re-triggers another El Niño event in the following winter, finally resulting in persistent El Niño-like states. Model experiments, with the NPO forcing assimilated to constrain atmospheric circulation, reproduce the observed connection between NPO forcing and the occurrence of multi-year El Niño events. Future projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 models demonstrate that with enhanced NPO variability under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent multi-year El Niño events should be expected. We conclude that properly accounting for the effects of the NPO on the evolution of El Niño events may improve multi-year El Niño prediction and projection.
URI
https://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/12008
DOI
10.1038/s41467-022-31516-9
ISSN
2041-1723
Appears in Collections:
Center for Climate Physics(기후물리 연구단) > 1. Journal Papers (저널논문)
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