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Chapter 20. Future Changes of the ENSO-Indian Summer Monsoon Teleconnection

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Title
Chapter 20. Future Changes of the ENSO-Indian Summer Monsoon Teleconnection
Author(s)
JYL; Tamas, Bodai
Subject
CMIP6El Niño Southern OscillationForced responseFuture changeGlobal warmingIndian summer monsoonLarge ensemble simulationsRCP8.5SSP5-8.5
Publication Date
2021-08
Journal
El Nino-teleconnections and beyond, Elsevier
Publisher
Elsevier
Abstract
Coupled ocean-atmosphere teleconnections are characteristics of internal variability which have a forced response just like mean states. It is not trivial how to correctly and optimally estimate the forced response and changes of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–Indian summer monsoon (ISM) teleconnection under greenhouse gas forcing. Here we use two different approaches to address it. The first approach, based on the conventional temporal method applied to 30 model simulations in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, suggests no model consensus on changes in the teleconnection on interannual timescale in response to global warming. The second approach is based on a converged infinite single model initial condition large ensemble (SMILE) and defines the relationship in an instantaneous climatological sense. In view of several characteristics of the teleconnection, a robust long-term strengthening of the teleconnection is found in the MPI-GE but not in the CESM1-LE. We discuss appropriateness and limitations of the two methods.
URI
https://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/11268
DOI
10.1016/B978-0-12-822402-1.00007-7
ISBN
9780-128224021
Appears in Collections:
Center for Climate Physics(기후물리 연구단) > 2. Books & Book Chapters (저역서)
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