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Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability

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Title
Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability
Author(s)
Keith B. Rodgers; Sun-Seon Lee; Rosenbloom, Nan; Axel Timmermann; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Deser, Clara; Edwards, Jim; Ji-Eun Kim; Simpson, Isla R.; Karl Stein; Stuecker, Malte F.; Ryohei Yamaguchi; Tamás Bódai; Chung, Eui-Seok; Lei Huang; Kim, Who M.; Lamarque, Jean-François; Lombardozzi, Danica L.; Wieder, William R.; Yeager, Stephen G.
Publication Date
2021-12-09
Journal
Earth System Dynamics, v.12, no.4, pp.1393 - 1411
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Abstract
© 2021 Keith B. Rodgers et al.While climate change mitigation targets necessarily concern maximum mean state changes, understanding impacts and developing adaptation strategies will be largely contingent on how climate variability responds to increasing anthropogenic perturbations. Thus far Earth system modeling efforts have primarily focused on projected mean state changes and the sensitivity of specific modes of climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. However, our knowledge of forced changes in the overall spectrum of climate variability and higher-order statistics is relatively limited. Here we present a new 100-member large ensemble of climate change projections conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 2 over 1850-2100 to examine the sensitivity of internal climate fluctuations to greenhouse warming. Our unprecedented simulations reveal that changes in variability, considered broadly in terms of probability distribution, amplitude, frequency, phasing, and patterns, are ubiquitous and span a wide range of physical and ecosystem variables across many spatial and temporal scales. Greenhouse warming in the model alters variance spectra of Earth system variables that are characterized by non-Gaussian probability distributions, such as rainfall, primary production, or fire occurrence. Our modeling results have important implications for climate adaptation efforts, resource management, seasonal predictions, and assessing potential stressors for terrestrial and marine ecosystems.
URI
https://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/10996
DOI
10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021
ISSN
2190-4979
Appears in Collections:
Center for Climate Physics(기후물리 연구단) > 1. Journal Papers (저널논문)
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