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Emergence of anthropogenic signals in the ocean carbon cycle

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Title
Emergence of anthropogenic signals in the ocean carbon cycle
Author(s)
Schlunegger, Sarah; Keith B. Rodgers; Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Froelicher, Thomas L.; Dunne, John P.; Ishii, Masao; Slater, Richard
Publication Date
2019-09
Journal
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, v.9, no.9, pp.719 - 725
Publisher
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Abstract
The attribution of anthropogenically forced trends in the climate system requires an understanding of when and how such signals emerge from natural variability. We applied time-of-emergence diagnostics to a large ensemble of an Earth system model, which provides both a conceptual framework for interpreting the detectability of anthropogenic impacts in the ocean carbon cycle and observational sampling strategies required to achieve detection. We found emergence timescales that ranged from less than a decade to more than a century, a consequence of the time lag between the chemical and radiative impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 on the ocean. Processes sensitive to carbonate chemical changes emerge rapidly, such as the impacts of acidification on the calcium carbonate pump (10 years for the globally integrated signal and 9-18 years for regionally integrated signals) and the invasion flux of anthropogenic CO2 into the ocean (14 years globally and 13-26 years regionally). Processes sensitive to the ocean's physical state, such as the soft-tissue pump, which depends on nutrients supplied through circulation, emerge decades later (23 years globally and 27-85 years regionally).
URI
https://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/10579
DOI
10.1038/s41558-019-0553-2
ISSN
1758-678X
Appears in Collections:
Center for Climate Physics(기후물리 연구단) > 1. Journal Papers (저널논문)
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