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Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects

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Title
Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects
Author(s)
Deser, C.; Lehner, F.; K. B. Rodgers; Ault, T.; Delworth, T. L.; DiNezio, P. N.; Fiore, A.; Frankignoul, C.; Fyfe, J. C.; Horton, D. E.; Kay, J. E.; Knutti, R.; Lovenduski, N. S.; Marotzke, J.; McKinnon, K. A.; Minobe, S.; Randerson, J.; Screen, J. A.; Simpson, I. R.; Ting, M.
Publication Date
2020-04
Journal
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, v.10, no.4, pp.277 - 286
Publisher
NATURE RESEARCH
Abstract
Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections, especially at regional and decadal scales. A new collection of initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) generated with seven Earth system models under historical and future radiative forcing scenarios provides new insights into uncertainties due to internal variability versus model differences. These data enhance the assessment of climate change risks, including extreme events, and offer a powerful testbed for new methodologies aimed at separating forced signals from internal variability in the observational record. Opportunities and challenges confronting the design and dissemination of future LEs, including increased spatial resolution and model complexity alongside emerging Earth system applications, are discussed. Climate change detection is confounded by internal variability, but recent initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) have begun addressing this issue. This Perspective discusses the value of multi-model LEs, the challenges of providing them and their role in future climate change research.
URI
https://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/10570
DOI
10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2
ISSN
1758-678X
Appears in Collections:
Center for Climate Physics(기후물리 연구단) > 1. Journal Papers (저널논문)
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