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Towards the development of economic damage functions for weather and climate extremes

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Title
Towards the development of economic damage functions for weather and climate extremes
Author(s)
Christian L.E. Franzke
Publication Date
2021-11
Journal
Ecological Economics, v.189
Publisher
Elsevier B.V.
Abstract
© 2021 Elsevier B.V.An important aspect of modeling the coupled human–Earth system is how weather and climate affects the economy. In particular, extreme weather and climate events can cause significant economic damages. Hence, there is a need to better understand the relationship between economic damages and extreme weather and climate events. Here, we analyze economic damage data using regression and probabilistic methods. We provide evidence for upward trends for inflation adjusted damages caused by extreme weather and climate events, while damages normalized by wealth have downward trends. We also find that relative to its wealth, Europe is the most affected continent followed by North America and Asia. We also identify covariates which affect economic damages. Multivariate regression models using either socio-economic or climate covariates explain only small amounts of the damage variation while the probabilistic Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model with covariates fits the damage data well. This suggests that economic damages due to weather and climate extreme events should be modeled using probabilistic methods. Using non-stationary GPD models, we find that mainly population is a significant covariate while also Gross Domestic Product (GDP), global mean surface temperature and modes of climate variability are significant covariates too.
URI
https://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/10159
DOI
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107172
ISSN
0921-8009
Appears in Collections:
Center for Climate Physics(기후물리 연구단) > 1. Journal Papers (저널논문)
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