Exploring causes of distinct regional and subseasonal Indian summer monsoon precipitation responses to CO2 removal

Abstract

This study investigates the response of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation to CO2 removal, with a specific focus on regional and subseasonal variations. Following CO2 removal, monsoon circulation weakens throughout the summer owing to the reduced large-scale meridional temperature gradient around India. Weakened monsoon circulation decreases the local-scale thermodynamic stability within India, following monsoon-onset periods. While the frequency of synoptic-scale ISM low-pressure systems (LPSs) decreases overall, the lower thermodynamic stability causes the LPSs to form and resultantly shift west and south from their typical paths, last longer and move more quickly zonally during August and September. Changes in these rain-producing processes induce distinct regional (Western Ghats, south-central-east India, and Tamil Nadu) and subseasonal precipitation responses. Also, extreme precipitation exhibits similar patterns, but is more strongly affected by changes in LPS. Our results suggest that reliable future projections of regional hydroclimate change require a more accurate understanding of multi-scale precipitation processes. © The Author(s) 2024.