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A model-based strategy for the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out in the Philippines

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Title
A model-based strategy for the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out in the Philippines
Author(s)
Escosio, Rey Audie S.; Cawiding, Olive R.; Bryan S. Hernandez; Mendoza, Renier G.; Mendoza, Victoria May P.; Mohammad, Rhudaina Z.; Pilar-Arceo, Carlene P.C.; Salonga, Pamela Kim N.; Suarez, Fatima Lois E.; Sy, Polly W.; Vergara, Thomas Herald M.; de los Reyes, Aurelio A.
Publication Date
2023-09
Journal
Journal of Theoretical Biology, v.573
Publisher
Academic Press
Abstract
COVID-19 has affected millions of people worldwide, causing illness and death, and disrupting daily life while imposing a significant social and economic burden. Vaccination is an important control measure that significantly reduces mortality if properly and efficiently distributed. In this work, an age-structured model of COVID-19 transmission, incorporating an unreported infectious compartment, is developed. Three age groups are considered: young (0–19 years), adult (20–64 years), and elderly (65+ years). The transmission rate and reporting rate are determined for each group by utilizing the number of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region in the Philippines. Optimal control theory is employed to identify the best vaccine allocation to different age groups. Further, three different vaccination periods are considered to reflect phases of vaccination priority groups: the first, second, and third account for the inoculation of the elderly, adult and elderly, and all three age groups, respectively. This study could guide in making informed decisions in mitigating a population-structured disease transmission under limited resources. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd
URI
https://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/14634
DOI
10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111596
ISSN
0022-5193
Appears in Collections:
Pioneer Research Center for Mathematical and Computational Sciences(수리 및 계산과학 연구단) > Biomedical Mathematics Group(의생명 수학 그룹) > 1. Journal Papers (저널논문)
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