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Future Indian Ocean warming patterns

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Title
Future Indian Ocean warming patterns
Author(s)
Sahil Sharma; Kyung-Ja Ha; Yamaguchi, R.; Keith B. Rodgers; Axel Timmermann; Chung, E.-S.
Publication Date
2023-03
Journal
Nature Communications, v.14, no.1
Publisher
Nature Research
Abstract
Most future projections conducted with coupled general circulation models simulate a non-uniform Indian Ocean warming, with warming hotspots occurring in the Arabian Sea (AS) and the southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO). But little is known about the underlying physical drivers. Here, we are using a suite of large ensemble simulations of the Community Earth System Model 2 to elucidate the causes of non-uniform Indian Ocean warming. Strong negative air-sea interactions in the Eastern Indian Ocean are responsible for a future weakening of the zonal sea surface temperature gradient, resulting in a slowdown of the Indian Ocean Walker circulation and the generation of southeasterly wind anomalies over the AS. These contribute to anomalous northward ocean heat transport, reduced evaporative cooling, a weakening in upper ocean vertical mixing and an enhanced AS future warming. In contrast, the projected warming in the SEIO is related to a reduction of low-cloud cover and an associated increase in shortwave radiation. Therefore, the regional character of air-sea interactions plays a key role in promoting future large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation anomalies with implications for society and ecosystems far outside the Indian Ocean realm. © 2023, The Author(s).
URI
https://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/13808
DOI
10.1038/s41467-023-37435-7
ISSN
2041-1723
Appears in Collections:
Center for Climate Physics(기후물리 연구단) > 1. Journal Papers (저널논문)
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