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Transmission dynamics and baseline epidemiological parameter estimates of Coronavirus disease 2019 pre-vaccination: Davao City, Philippines

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Title
Transmission dynamics and baseline epidemiological parameter estimates of Coronavirus disease 2019 pre-vaccination: Davao City, Philippines
Author(s)
Añonuevo, Loreniel E.; Lachica, Zython Paul T; Amistas, Deza A.; Lato, Jayve Iay E; Bontilao, Hanna Lyka C; Catalan, Jolly Mae G; Pasion, Rachel Joy F; Yumang, Annabelle P.; Almocera, Alexis Erich S; Arcede, Jayrold P.; Mata, May Anne E; Aurelio A. de Los Reyes V
Publication Date
2023-04
Journal
PloS one, v.18, no.4, pp.e0283068
Publisher
NLM (Medline)
Abstract
The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has exposed many systemic vulnerabilities in many countries' health system, disaster preparedness, and adequate response capabilities. With the early lack of data and information about the virus and the many differing local-specific factors contributing to its transmission, managing its spread had been challenging. The current work presents a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered compartmental model incorporating intervention protocols during different community quarantine periods. The COVID-19 reported cases before the vaccine rollout in Davao City, Philippines, are utilized to obtain baseline values for key epidemiologic model parameters. The probable secondary infections (i.e., time-varying reproduction number) among other epidemiological indicators were computed. Results show that the cases in Davao City were driven by the transmission rates, positivity proportion, latency period, and the number of severely symptomatic patients. This paper provides qualitative insights into the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 along with the government's implemented intervention protocols. Furthermore, this modeling framework could be used for decision support, policy making, and system development for the current and future pandemics. Copyright: © 2023 Añonuevo et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
URI
https://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/13661
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0283068
ISSN
1932-6203
Appears in Collections:
Pioneer Research Center for Mathematical and Computational Sciences(수리 및 계산과학 연구단) > Biomedical Mathematics Group(의생명 수학 그룹) > 1. Journal Papers (저널논문)
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