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Increasing ENSO–rainfall variability due to changes in future tropical temperature–rainfall relationship

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dc.contributor.authorKyung-Sook Yun-
dc.contributor.authorJune-Yi Lee-
dc.contributor.authorAxel Timmermann-
dc.contributor.authorKarl Stein-
dc.contributor.authorMalte F. Stuecker-
dc.contributor.authorJohn C. Fyfe-
dc.contributor.authorEui-Seok Chung-
dc.date.accessioned2022-07-29T08:13:14Z-
dc.date.available2022-07-29T08:13:14Z-
dc.date.created2021-07-08-
dc.date.issued2021-02-
dc.identifier.issn2662-4435-
dc.identifier.urihttps://pr.ibs.re.kr/handle/8788114/12094-
dc.description.abstractIntensification of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-rainfall variability in response to global warming is a robust feature across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) iterations, regardless of a lack of robust projected changes in ENSO-sea-surface temperature (SST) variability. Previous studies attributed this intensification to an increase in mean SST and moisture convergence over the central-to-eastern Pacific, without explicitly considering underlying nonlinear SST–rainfall relationship changes. Here, by analyzing changes of the tropical SST–rainfall relationship of CMIP6 models, we present a mechanism linking the mean SST rise to amplifying ENSO–rainfall variability. We show that the slope of the SST–rainfall function over Niño3 region becomes steeper in a warmer climate, ~42.1% increase in 2050–2099 relative to 1950–1999, due to the increase in Clausius–Clapeyron-driven moisture sensitivity, ~16.2%, and dynamic contributions, ~25.9%. A theoretical reconstruction of ENSO–rainfall variability further supports this mechanism. Our results imply ENSO’s hydrological impacts increase nonlinearly in response to global warming.-
dc.language영어-
dc.publisherSPRINGERNATURE-
dc.titleIncreasing ENSO–rainfall variability due to changes in future tropical temperature–rainfall relationship-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.type.rimsART-
dc.identifier.wosid000665752100003-
dc.identifier.scopusid2-s2.0-85101989869-
dc.identifier.rimsid76001-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthorKyung-Sook Yun-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthorJune-Yi Lee-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthorAxel Timmermann-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthorKarl Stein-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthorEui-Seok Chung-
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s43247-021-00108-8-
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitationCommunications Earth & Environment, v.2, no.1-
dc.relation.isPartOfCommunications Earth & Environment-
dc.citation.titleCommunications Earth & Environment-
dc.citation.volume2-
dc.citation.number1-
dc.description.journalClass1-
dc.description.journalClass1-
dc.description.isOpenAccessN-
dc.description.journalRegisteredClassscie-
dc.description.journalRegisteredClassscopus-
dc.relation.journalWebOfScienceCategoryEnvironmental Sciences-
dc.relation.journalWebOfScienceCategoryGeosciences, Multidisciplinary-
dc.relation.journalWebOfScienceCategoryMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences-
dc.subject.keywordPlusSEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE-
dc.subject.keywordPlusEL-NINO-
dc.subject.keywordPlusPACIFIC RAINFALL-
dc.subject.keywordPlusINTERMODEL UNCERTAINTY-
dc.subject.keywordPlusPRECIPITATION-
dc.subject.keywordPlusAMPLITUDE-
dc.subject.keywordPlusCMIP5-
dc.subject.keywordPlusMECHANISMS-
dc.subject.keywordPlusCONVECTION-
dc.subject.keywordPlusPATTERNS-
Appears in Collections:
Center for Climate Physics(기후물리 연구단) > 1. Journal Papers (저널논문)
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