Quantifying the Role of Seasonality in the Marine Carbon Cycle Feedback: An ESM2M Case Study

Abstract

Observations and climate models indicate that changes in the seasonal amplitude of sea surface carbon dioxide partial pressure (A-pCO(2)) are underway and driven primarily by anthropogenic carbon (C-ant) accumulation in the ocean. This occurs because pCO(2) is more responsive to seasonal changes in physics (including warming) and biology in an ocean that contains more C-ant. A-pCO(2) changes have the potential to alter annual ocean carbon uptake and contribute to the overall marine carbon cycle feedback. Using the GFDL ESM2M Large Ensemble and a novel analysis framework, we quantify the influence of C-ant accumulation on pCO(2) seasonal cycles and sea-air CO2 fluxes. Specifically, we reconstruct alternative evolutions of the contemporary ocean state in which the sensitivity of pCO(2) to seasonal thermal and biophysical variation is fixed at preindustrial levels, however the background, mean-state pCO(2) fully responds to anthropogenic forcing. We find near-global A-pCO(2) increases of >100% by 2100, under RCP8.5 forcing, with rising C-ant accounting for similar to 100% of thermal and similar to 50% of nonthermal pCO(2) component amplitude changes. The other similar to 50% of nonthermal pCO(2) component changes are attributed to modeled changes in ocean physics and biology caused by climate change. C-ant-induced A-pCO(2) changes cause an 8.1 +/- 0.4% (ensemble mean +/- 1 sigma) increase in ocean carbon uptake by 2100. The is because greater wintertime wind speeds enhance the impact of wintertime pCO(2) changes, which work to increase the ocean carbon sink. Thus, the seasonal ocean carbon cycle feedback works in opposition to the larger, mean-state feedback that reduces ocean carbon uptake by similar to 60%.