Rising risks of compound extreme heat-precipitation events in China

Abstract

© 2022 Royal Meteorological Society.While the changes of extreme weather and climate events have been well investigated, the change of compound events (i.e., combinations of multiple weather/climate extremes and/or hazards), which severely affect the biophysical and human systems, remains poorly understood. Here, we examine the decadal trends of subsequently (or “preconditioned”) compound extreme heat-precipitation events (i.e., extreme precipitation events preceded by an extreme heat) across China during 1961–2016. We find that, on average, around one-quarter of summer precipitation extremes over China (especially western China) are preceded by an extreme heat event. In most areas of China, the fraction of the compound precipitation events preceded by heat extremes exhibits significant increases since the 1960s, with a national mean increasing tendency of 2.51%·decade−1. Furthermore, the rising trends in the fractional contribution of hot weather to extreme precipitation events over most parts of China have accelerated in more recent decades.